Good morning. After stumbling into the long weekend, Tech stocks- in particular the semis/hardware names- bounced on Monday, pushing the S&P 500 to a 0.8% gain. Speaking of stumbling, the US Men’s National team lost last night to Belgium, ending their World Cup run. We turn our attention back to the Yankees and Connor MacGregor’s return to the UFC Octagon on Saturday. S&P futures are slightly lower but Dow and Russell futures are trading higher in another relatively quiet day for data. Tech is under pressure in the pre-market. Samsung (-7%) reported preliminary results last night which exceeded estimates, but the bar was extremely high (and details scant). The sell-off on strong nominal results is something to note with earnings season kicking in next week (banks leading the way out).

Crude is modestly higher, creeping back towards its 200d ma ~$74.15 following the latest Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait, though no significant escalation looks imminent. Gold is slightly higher while silver is modestly lower. Hong Kong is expanding its gold trading operations, including the launch of its new clearing system. This comes as China increased its gold reserves for the 20th straight month, with June’s addition the largest increase over that period. Ag is trading higher, following up on strong gains yesterday across most of the complex (coffee +15%, corn 4%) on weather forecasts. Bitcoin and Ether are trading a little lower with Bitcoin near $63K.

The Nikkei fell 2% overnight. Weakness in South Korea (KOSPI -5%) post-Samsung earnings trumped Monday’s US tech strength as a lead for Japan. Memory maker Kioxia fell 11%. Household spending came in stronger than expected. In China Shanghai fell over 1% and Hong Kong dropped 0.5%. DeepSeek is reportedly developing its own AI chips. Over in Europe, the major indexes are mixed. Consumer products and autos are leading while Tech, industrial producers and miners lag. Germany’s Industrial Production was better than expected and rose from last month but the DAX is down almost 1% as Siemens, Siemens Energy and Infineon fall 3-7%.