Good morning. US equities were mixed on Friday. The S&P 500 ended flat but the equal-weight rose 0.8% and every sector outside of Tech was higher. Memory and semis got hit (DRAM -9%), mega caps were mixed (AAPL +3.5%, META -1.8%) and software gained (IGV +1.0%). For the week the S&P fell ~0.5% but the equal-weight was slightly higher and small caps fell about 1%. Semis had been stronger before Friday’s selloff. The Iran situation cooled off once again over the weekend after President Trump postponed strikes on Friday and Saturday before reports that he decided against a major escalation. In response, Iran reportedly will halt its attacks as well. The latest détente has sent crude sharply lower this morning, helping global equities move higher and pushing yields lower. S&P futures gapped up on their opening, back into their 50d ma and pointing to a 0.8% gain at the cash open.

Earnings are quiet this morning but will ramp up significantly. Central Banks will be another key driver with the Fed rate decision on Wednesday, along with the BOJ and BOE. Yields are down 3-5bp across the curve on oil’s drop and the US Dollar Index is slightly lower. The data calendar is quiet as well. Headline Durable Goods orders missed estimates, but Capital Goods (ex-defense and aircraft) rose 0.9%, slightly above estimates though down from last month’s 1.9% increase. The AI circular financing narrative/concern got another boost with a Bloomberg story on Nvidia working on $750B in infrastructure deals. That includes a $500B deal with SK Hynix announced on Friday and (previously reported) ~$250B backstop for a SoftBank-developed datacenter in Ohio, likely to be leased by OpenAI. That doesn’t include potentially $350B worth of chip purchases. Chip equipment names (AMAT, MRVL, KLA, SNDK, etc) are trading higher about 3% higher in the pre-market. In non-AI news, United Airlines approached Delta last year about a potential merger, according to reports. Continuing with the M&A, or lack thereof, Brown-Forman rebuffed Sazerac’s $15B offer.

Crude is down >5% this morning on the Iran news, but off its lows ~$87 after bouncing off its 100d ma. Natural gas is also lower, especially European TTF. Metals are seeing a modest bounce, with gold and silver up less than 1% as yields fall on the Iran/oil moves. Bitcoin is up 1%, challenging its 50d ma ~$65K once again, as it had for most of last week. Ether is seeing stronger gains as it looks to regain its 100d ma ~$1950.