Good morning. Yesterday equities staged a global rally and crude sold off after a ceasefire agreement in Iran was announced Tuesday night. However “fragile” is a well-earned adjective for the agreement. While Brent crude fell over 10%, it finished ~$95, off its lows ~$90. Yields saw a similar pattern, finishing around unchanged but well above their lows of the day across the curve. Global equities are giving back some of yesterday’s gains ahead of the NYSE Open. S&P futures are down 0.3%, trading in the middle of their range today. VP Vance is heading to Pakistan to begin meetings with Iran Friday night. Israel’s operations in Lebanon were an early area of confusion- whether the theater was or was not part of the ceasefire agreement (it’s not). The Israeli government was reported to have assured the US they would ease up on strikes against Hezbollah over the next two weeks. Questions around how open the Strait of Hormuz truly is remain paramount as well. Iran said it would limit the number of ships crossing the strait to only about a dozen/day (~10% of pre-war total) and charge tolls. President Trump is also laying into NATO on social media.

Treasuries were little changed ahead of today’s February PCE data, which printed inline with expectations. Tomorrow’s CPI will contain March data, so should provide a much more updated look at the impact of the Iran war. The final Q4 GDP estimate was revised lower, from 0.7% to 0.5%. Initial Claims were higher than expected and rose from last week, reaching their highest level since early February, though remained well within the longer-term range. Continuing Claims fell below 1800k.

Oil is bouncing after yesterday’s sell-off as skepticism of the ceasefire remains. Precious metals are down modestly. Ag is higher ahead of today’s WASDE report. Bitcoin is slightly lower, trying to hold above its 50d ma ~$70k.