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Median Quote Size as Share of Intraday Volume (bps)
Note: Quote size is the average of duration-weighted NBBO bid and offer sizes.
Intraday Volume includes all tape-reported volume except opening and closing auctions
*ETFs include all ETFs with a consolidated volume over 50,000 sgares
Michael Reinking, CFA
Sr. Market Strategist
It is Fed day and it should be an interesting one. Yesterday, after gapping higher US markets failed to hold those gains with most indices closing down marginally. There is a relief rally this morning in the US as some of the contagion concerns related to Evergrande fade. S&P futures are near overnight highs currently trading about 0.7% above fair-value. Futures began to move higher after Evergrande said that the interest payment of one of its yuan denominated bonds “has been resolved via negotiations off the clearing house”. There is speculation that payments have been postponed/lowered to avoid a default. This is being perceived as a positive but this situation is by no means over. Chinese markets re-opened for the first time this week and closed marginally higher. Overnight, the PBOC left its loan prime rates unchanged but did inject ~$18.5B into the system via reverse repos. Hong Kong was closed overnight. Most major European markets are up ~1%. The Fed announcement is the big catalyst of the day. This should not be a very controversial meeting with most expecting the Fed to further advance the discussion of a taper announcement later this year. The Summary of Economic Projections could be a cause of concern should the DOTS signal that the first rate increase has been pulled forward into 2022 coupled with more than 2 additional increases in 2023. This will be the first time that 2024 projections are introduced. This will present a challenge for Chair Powell as he continues to communicate that the hurdle for a taper announcement is lower than for rate increases and liftoff is still a far ways off. The US dollar index and yields are a touch higher ahead of the event. ICE Brent is up ~1.5% approaching recent highs after API inventory data showed a large draw ahead of the official report this morning. The commodities complex has a bid amidst the risk on sentiment.
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