S&P futures drifted higher overnight ahead of this morning’s CPI print. That print turned out to be rather non-eventful, fitting for the overall pace this week, coming in on the screws with expectations. The S&P 500 opened up 0.5%, currently the HOD, but has traded in another tight range, up about 0.2% currently. Small caps are outperforming modestly and the equal-weight is about inline.

Getting to the data- Headline and Core CPI were both on the screws up 0.1% / 0.2% m/m respectively. Energy prices continued to decline though this will likely reverse in August. Treasury yields are around where they were trading before the CPI print, down 1-3bp. The odds of a hold in September moved up from 52% yesterday to 62% today and 1 cut is priced in through December, down from 1.2 cuts.

Brent is relatively unchanged, trading between $88-$90 after running up over the past few days. US and European natural gas is higher. Europe is dealing with a heatwave, record low river levels, a solar eclipse and a jellyfish swarm that knocked out nuclear power. Metals are broadly higher with gold in a tight range and probing its 200d ma after running over the past week. Ag was trading higher heading into this afternoon’s WASDE report and is holding on to those gains, with wheat and corn standouts. Ukraine and Russia trading strikes in the Black Sea is not helping. Bitcoin has pulled back from modest gains earlier as it tests support at its 50d ma and Ether remains in a tight trading range.