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NYSE Closing Auction: Order Type Usage
January 1 - June 8, 2021
Daily U.S. Market Update
Stefanos Bazinas
Execution Strategist
June 17, 2021 AT 2:00 PM EDT
Investors have now had nearly 24 hours to digest yesterday’s Fed decision. The initial take from the statement was hawkish as projections acknowledged the rise in inflation and the DOTS signaled that Fed officials now expect rates to start moving higher earlier/faster than previously projected. During the press conference Chairman Powell went out of his way to downplay the DOT dynamic (as he has in the past) saying this should be taken with a “big grain of salt”. He highlighted that substantial progress has not yet been made to remove asset purchases, but that the Fed has started talking about talking about tapering. As expected much of the press conference was spent discussing temporary dynamics that are affecting inflation and the labor market. Chairman Powell did acknowledge that the Fed’s “transitory” view could ultimately be wrong and that the central bank would pivot as necessary. At the end of the day, my takeaway is that this was a recalibration of Fed messaging to the current environment and not a major shift in tone. The meeting should not materially shift market expectations for monetary policy, which will be slightly less accommodative going forward because the economy is improving (not a bad thing). The meeting should give the market some confidence that the Fed is not asleep at the wheel and removes some of the risk of a major policy mistake (full recap below). There have been some big cross-asset moves over the last 1.5 sessions which we’ll discuss. For the theme that is consistent across most of those moves I’d refer back to last Thursday’s quote from none other than Clubber Lang when asked for his prediction, “Pain”.
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