Drawing a market parallel, last night’s historic comeback by the Knicks was on par with the 10% intraday reversal on April 9th of last year amidst the tariff turmoil. What looked like a potential early bedtime turned into a sleepless night of elation for much of the tri-state area (MAC Desk included), and the turnaround was quickly reflected in futures. Yesterday US markets were under pressure again with tech (and AI-adjacent) leading to the downside but unlike Tuesday’s session the losses were broad based. The S&P 500 closed near session lows down 1.6%, less than 1% above its rising 50d ma which is now ~7,225. The weakness was driven by an elevated CPI print, an escalation in Iran rhetoric/kinetic activity and more consternation about fund flows with the recent increase in issuance/upcoming IPOs.

Shortly after the close Oracle released earnings, putting up solid results showing very strong growth, but the report once again highlighted the upfront capital intensity. The company also announced that would raise another ~$20B of equity in FY27, on top of the $20B previously announced, but no additional debt issuance in CY 2026. The stock sold off in the aftermarket. US futures were a touch higher early in the evening but started to move higher ~10:30pm as the Knicks cut the Spurs 29-point lead in half giving fans some hope they could pull off the miracle. The gains extended overnight and futures were near the highs as weary traders made their way to their posts as oil prices pulled back despite the pickup of activity in the Middle East.

However, shortly before this morning’s inflation data President Trump took to social media to say the US “will be hitting Iran…taking Kharg Island and other oil infrastructure….and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets.” This would mark a major escalation in the conflict as it would require boots on the ground. The headlines caused oil prices to jump a couple of dollars and futures to pullback, but markets continue to discount the rhetoric, as its always followed by but talks are still ongoing. It was a choppy session throughout most of the day with major indices holding onto modest gains but…….right on cue at 1:30, as I was wrapping up today’s note, President Trump said he was canceling scheduled strikes as “final points have been approved in principle and in detail by all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Egypt, and others.” Equities have pushed to session highs, oil prices are trying to break recent lows while Treasury yields pullback.