With markets celebrating what looks like a firm, if interim, deal between the US and Iran and what was definitely a Knicks championship, equities are starting the week strongly. While full details remain to be seen, the deal was actually confirmed by Iran and involves full opening of the Strait of Hormuz after the formal signing on Friday as well as the lifting of the US blockade on Iranian ships. A 60-day period for negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program will begin, which could unlock billions of dollars of sanctioned Iranian cash. The S&P 500 is at session highs, up just under 2%. Tech and mega caps are leading the way, with the equal-weight up “only" 1% and the NYSE 100 climbing over 3%. The Russell is up over 1%, and there is notable strength in the higher risk/thematic groups compared to general weakness across the smaller cap financials. Quantum, nuclear, neoclouds and rare earth plays are all seeing strong gains.

Oil’s decline is of course pressuring Energy. Staples, Healthcare and Real Estate (despite yields dropping) are modestly lower. Tech and Comm Services are leading given the tech/large cap strength. Markets are shrugging off news that the government issued an export control directive causing Anthropic to suspend access to its Fable and Mythos 5 models.

Brent crude has fallen below its 100d ma after tagging it on Friday’s weakness, and is trading at its lowest level since April 17. Precious metals are sharply higher on the oil and yield moves. Crypto is seeing strong gains as Bitcoin shot past $65K and is now back to $67K. Strategy added $100M more bitcoin according to a disclosure today. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong called the Bitcoin bottom at ~$60K on Friday, if you’re keeping score. ETH jumped over 5% and regained $1800. Alt-coins are seeing some big gains.