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March 19, 2025 at 6:35 p.m. EST
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged. Within the statement the language about the current state of inflation and employment were also untouched. However, there were some big changes elsewhere. The Committee added the following line “Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased” which was an upgrade to the description of uncertainty while removing the following line, “The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.” Chair Powell tried to downplay these changes in his press conference but if you look in the deeper into the Summary of Economic Projections you can clearly see that the uncertainty is more pervasive the balance of risk to economic growth and unemployment have clearly shifted negatively (see below). Recall the inflation balance of risk already shifted higher in December.
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