Yesterday oil continued to rise with disruptions in Libya joining the war in Iran and escalating tensions in/around Saudi Arabia. Sectors were broadly lower outside of Energy as the S&P 500 fell below 7600: the 50d ma and the lower boundary of the past month’s trading range we’ve been noting. Treasury yields moved a little higher and the Dollar strengthened, pressuring metals. Bitcoin was under pressure all day ahead of the Senate’s procedural vote on the Clarity Act, which ultimately failed to pass a procedural vote.

Ahead of the Fed rate decision and Warsh’s presser this afternoon US futures were higher in the morning as Brent crude fell back below $108. The cash index opened up 0.2% and is trading right around that level, hanging on to 7600 like Stallone in Cliffhanger. The equal-weight is fractionally higher, lagging slightly. Small caps are outperforming.

Gains are broad as every sector is higher outside of Energy and Financials. Banks are trading lower in response to some commentary around weaker loan growth and NII guidance at broker conferences. Crypto-levered stocks are also under pressure. Industrials and Tech are outperforming as the AI infrastructure names bounce.

With oil lower, yields pulled back as well and the curve bull steepened with 2y falling ~5bp. Data today supported the economic resiliency theme and burnishes the case for rate hikes. Retail Sales beat expectations, both headline and the control group that feeds into GDP. Brent crude is down ~3%. Saudi Arabia said it's hoping to restore about half of the East-West pipeline capacity within days, dovetailing with earlier comments from Energy Secretary Wright. Bitcoin is taking a breather after falling ~5% yesterday, bouncing off support ~$75K, while ETH looks to hold $2400. Attention will likely turn to SEC and CFTC rulemaking to fill the vacuum and advance regulatory certainty for the industry.