Before the latest blizzard hit the northeast overnight, the Boys in the Red, White and Blue joined the Women in bringing home the Gold in an OT thriller to finish off the hockey Golden Sweep in Milan. It was a historic Olympic performance for Team USA overall, which finished with 33 medals- 12 Gold (our most ever) 12 Silver, 9 Bronze- second behind the Biathlon / X-Country juggernaut Norway’s 41.

On to the markets. Friday was another choppy session after the Supreme Court struck down the IEEEPA tariffs. Last week we highlighted the correlation of the weather outside and the thawing of the AI Winter but had warned of impending storms. The Private Credit Chill also deepened as the concerns around software/data center exposure were amplified by worries related to redemption and liquidity mismatches. Now add to that a report published Sunday by well-followed Citrini Research on potential disruptions and risks posed by AI, including sharp increases in unemployment and economic contraction.

US index futures and the USD were both under pressure overnight but strengthened into the Open today. The S&P 500 began the day slightly lower before moving into positive territory right after the Bell. The index was again unable to break through the 50d ma ~6900 and equities quickly faded from those best levels. We’re a little off the lows, down ~1% as we test support at the 100d ma ~6825, which has held since May. The equal-weight is off a similar amount while Mid and small caps lag (Russell -2%).

Financials are the worst performers today as Private Credit/Equity names are all sharply lower again, which is also weighing on consumer credit (AXP, COF, SYF down >5%). Banks and Insurance are also down sharply. Consumer Discretionary is also under pressure with the risk-off stance. Treasuries are getting bid as equities sell-off with yields down ~5bp. The Dollar is seeing some pressure on most major crosses.

Brent traded lower overnight, rallied throughout the morning before turning lower again as we approached noon (day’s range $70.70-$72.50), currently down 0.5%. US and Iran negotiators are scheduled to resume talks Thursday. Crypto took a sharp leg lower last night with another round of reported liquidations, managed to claw back most of those losses before turning back towards the lows of the day, currently down 5% at ~$64.5k. Ethereum saw similar action, also down 5% and trading ~$1,850.