This week oil prices continued to move higher with ICE Brent trading in the low 90’s as the 60-day ceasefire ended and Iran officials suggested a shift in posture from defensive to “fully offensive”. President Trump said actions taken by the administration will be an Economic D-Day.

Equity markets drifted lower throughout the week before bouncing Friday. The S&P 500 ended the week down ~1.5% breaking below 7,700 and the low-end of the recent range that had been in place since the upside surge in the opening days of August, but there was really no technical damage done as the index held above its 20d ma . The intraday ranges at the index level were pretty tight, likely due in part to options expiration. We’ll see if the rolling off of those positions is a release valve for some volatility next week. The tech and momentum trade has been volatile again with aggressive rotational activity occurring beneath the surface, similar to what we saw during July with the equal weight outperforming by ~1% this week. Small and midcap indices underperformed ending the week down ~2%. The Treasury Department announced it would double the size of its liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated Treasuries to at least $4B- more symbolic than anything else- but he signaled more announcements were coming as the long-end is clearly a focus for the administration.

ICE Brent (Sept) continued to climb this week, adding >5% and returning back to late July highs. Metals saw broad gains, and in particular gold and silver. Crypto had a huge move this week. Bitcoin and Ether rose over 20% as a vicious short-squeeze took hold. Turning to next week the key economic data is Personal Income and Spending and PCE on Wednesday. Late cycle retail and tech earnings will also be in focus, including Nvidia. On Friday Fed Chair Warsh will give his first speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. And most importantly we get the kickoff to the NCAA Football season. Can't wait to see Penn St.'s next White Out game. Enjoy your weekend.