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Today’s Stock Market

Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist

August 22, 2025 at 9:15 a.m. EST

We made it to the most anticipated event of the last few weeks- the official release of Deftones new album. Also, Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole (10am). An incredible amount of digital ink has been spilled over how Powell will position the outlook for upcoming rate decisions (market-based expectations are 70% for a Sept cut and just under 2 more 25bp cuts rest of the year), with updated thoughts on inflation and employment risks. The speech, however, is Economic Outlook and Framework Review , and that last part is getting overlooked. The Fed has been reviewing their overall approach to their dual-mandate and revisions could include scrapping the average inflation targeting strategy that kind of went out the window anyway when inflation ripped higher during COVID and interest rates lifted off from zero. S&P futures are at their highs, pointing to a ~0.3% higher opening and have moved well off overnight lows during the Asian close/European open crossover. Yesterday saw equities fell as rates rose. The S&P 500 dropped 0.4%, the equal-weight about the same and the Russell slightly better, down 0.2%. Meanwhile Treasury yields rose 3-4bp across the curve. The main drivers were hot price/inflation readings from multiple sources, including flash PMIs, the Philly Fed survey, Walmart earnings commentary and non-Powell Fed speakers. The PMIs also showed decent growth. Treasury yields are trading around unchanged ahead of Powell’s speech. The Dollar is flat as well. Brent crude is flat after rallying the past 3 days as the difficulties of further progress in the Ukraine peace process become apparent. Gold and Silver are down 0.5-1% and copper is slightly lower. Bitcoin and Ether continue to slide but have recovered a bit as we near the Open.

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