Good morning. Yesterday we saw the latest example of the fog of uncertainty that surrounds this conflict when Iran state media said they obtained the draft Memorandum of Understanding, followed by the White House saying it was a “complete fabrication”. Oil prices fell but stayed lower, however, while the S&P 500, equal-weight and Russell 2000 all ended around flat.

Futures were trading modestly lower but off the overnight lows heading into the multiple US data releases this morning. The US struck Iranian targets and drones overnight but no further escalation is apparent so far as markets continue to wait out an ending to the conflict. The data then took center stage. Headline and core PCE rose 0.2% and 0.4% m.m, respectively, slightly below consensus and last month but remain well above 3% y.y. Durable goods orders rose sharply and beat estimates, but stripping out defense and aircraft, orders fell and missed estimates- a rare decline in that metric over the past two years. The second estimate for GDP was revised lower, from 2.0% to 1.6%, with a downward revision to consumer spending (services lower, offsetting higher goods) and investment (inventories). Weekly claims data was largely inline and along trend.

With all the data out, Treasury yields backed off, down 2-3bp from pre-print levels and around flat overall, while S&P futures rose to get to around unchanged and just under overnight highs as we near the Open. Several big tech names reported with generally solid numbers and Retail reports this morning have been generally solid as well, with positive stock reactions.

Crude is modestly higher following yesterday’s drop but off its overnight highs. Metals are trading lower and ag is mixed. Bitcoin and Ether are down as well, with most of Bitcoin’s drop occurring late Wednesday night.