The S&P 500 gained 3% this week, arresting a five-week slide. The big move came on Tuesday- the end of the month and end of Q1. A WSJ article said President Trump was open to ending the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. That gave the market another potential off-ramp it’s constantly looking for and served as an initial catalyst for stocks. After more, often diverging commentary from Trump and others, the next leg higher came after Iran’s President said Iran was ready to end the war, but wanted guarantees. With the fire lit for equities, positional factors then provided dry kindle to ignite the rally even more. Flows around quarter-end rebalancing, positional adjustment and hedging added to the rally’s momentum. The S&P ended the day up 2% and back at the Oct/Nov lows. Equities followed through with more gains on Wednesday, but ended off the highs as the index crept back closer to the 200d ma. News continued to produce conflicting signals ahead of President Trump’s speech Wednesday night. He largely kept to comments that he and others in the administration have previously made- mainly that core military objectives have been met and the US is close to finishing the job. However the lack of a defined exit strategy, along with the lingering questions about the Strait of Hormuz, led to futures selling off overnight. The S&P 500 was down as much as 1.5% on Thursday, but then saw yet another rally on hopes of de-escalation after headlines hit that Iran was drafting plans with Oman for traffic in the Strait.

Next week is the calm before the earnings storm. A few retail and consumer-facing names will report results, including Levi's, Delta Airlines and Constellation Brands. The week after next will bring the earnings cycle back around with Financials the first out of the gate.

Monday, April 6, is President Trump's latest deadline for Iran to open the Strait. Expect more social posts around this and related topics during the weekend. The most important economic data comes on Friday with the March CPI print, which will include the Iran war timeline. PCE for February will be also be important but probably less so given its relative staleness. ISM services, weekly jobless claims and final GDP will also be released, as will the Fed Minutes from the last meeting. And we’ll also welcome the crew of Artemis II back to earth next Saturday, after their 10-day lunar flyby concludes. Enjoy the Final Four and time with family.