S&P futures were modestly higher and gaining strength as we headed to the Open today. After a brief moment at an all-time intraday high (6754.49), equites began to slip, like the Yankees World Series chances. The decline picked up steam after a report in The information said Oracle lost $100M from renting Nvdia Blackwell chips, igniting the Bear narrative of questionable AI ROI. Other big AI and semi stocks are 2-5% lower as well, though Nvidia is looking to stay flat after being up ~2% earlier. The equal-weight’s decline is inline while small caps are lagging. Despite the tech headlines its Consumer Discretionary that is leading lower with sector-wide weakness. Comm Services is down with 1-2% declines in Alphabet and Meta leading the way. On the plus side, Consumer Staples (most of the group higher except for major retailers) and Utilities (despite higher rates) are leading. This morning ICE announced a strategic investment of up to $2 billion in prediction market platform Polymarket. Treasuries were flat earlier today but got a bid as equities began to move lower, taking yields down with them. The 3y auction stopped-trough by 0.8bp. The US Dollar Index however is heading higher, breaking above 98 as it breaches its 50 and 100d ma. The government shutdown continues but several Fed speakers are on the schedule, despite not having much federal government data to talk about. Brent crude is lower following yesterday’s gains on the less-than-feared OPEC production increase. API crude inventories come out after the close, and according to the EIA’s website it’s still operating so that data should be published tomorrow morning as scheduled. Precious metals are mixed with gold crossing $4,000 while silver is lower. Copper is higher as well. Ag is mostly lower. After crossing above $125k, Bitcoin began to move lower after equities opened, as did Ether, with both currently down 2-3%.

Expand article