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November 4, 2025 at 2:00 p.m. EST
Civic-minded voters are being rewarded with cross-asset weakness as they head to the polls today for Election Day. Equities, commodities and especially crypto are lower. The S&P 500 opened down 1%, moved another 20bps lower, briefly cut those losses roughly in half but moved back towards the lows, currently down ~1%. The equal-weight is faring a bit better while small caps are trading roughly in line. The Dow Transports is an upside standout with freight and rail names balancing weakness in airlines. As far as standouts on the downside, the ICE Semis index is down ~3% with major chip names down up to 5%. That’s pushing Tech and Comm Services to the bottom today. AMD, SuperMicro report after the close. Consumer Discretionary is also lagging as cruise lines trade lower after earnings from Norwegian. McDonald’s reports tomorrow. Financials and Healthcare are trading slightly higher. Insurance, service providers and capital markets are generally higher for Financials, while Equipment, Med Devices and managed care are mostly in the green for Healthcare. It's another very light macro calendar today, but things could get interesting tomorrow with oral arguments in the Trump tariff case in front of the Supreme Court. Commodities are trading lower along with equities. The pressure on crypto continues like its Ed Harris trying to disarm the nuke in The Abyss. Bitcoin took out the 200d ma (~$104k) and is clinging to $100k currently. A recent hack of the Ethereum Defi protocol Balancer has helped push prices lower, especially Ether which fell almost 10% at its lows on Monday and is down similarly today.
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