Yesterday equities staged a global rally and crude sold off after a ceasefire agreement in Iran was announced Tuesday night. “Fragility” might replace “Uncertainty” as the new go-to term for the MAC Desk, however, as the ceasefire has some things to iron out, lets just say. While Brent crude fell over 10% yesterday, it finished ~$95, off its lows ~$90. Yields saw a similar pattern, finishing around unchanged but well above their lows of the day across the curve.

The S&P 500 has broken through the 100d ma ~6800, firmly back inside the 6700-7000 range the index sat in for most of the past six months. The index is currently up over 0.5%. Small-caps are leading while the equal-weight lags.

Discretionary is leading today, following through on yesterday’s gains. Amazon is a big part of that after its annual shareholder letter provided a bullish overview of its AI business. Real Estate, Utilities (yields lower), Industrials (broadly higher, ex-professional services) and Staples are also trading up around 1%. Tech is very mixed as semis climb but software is getting smoked by the return of SAAS-pocolypse.

Treasury yields moved lower, currently down 3bp out to the 10yr. Today’s 30y auction wasn’t great but good enough. Economic data was a bit of a downer. Today’s February PCE data was inline with expectations. However the 3.0% y/y increase in core, before any effects from Iran registered, is not exactly comforting. Tomorrow’s CPI will contain March data, so should provide a much more updated look at the impact of the Iran war. Oil is bouncing a little after yesterday’s sell-off and earlier strength from questions around the ceasefire. However it’s given back most of the gains as the barrage of updates on talks throughout the region hit the tape.