Good morning. Yesterday saw significant reversals in equities and oil. S&P futures were down 2% at their lows before the cash session opened but the index ended the day up 0.8%. That included a 1% gain in the last 30 minutes of trading, which was triggered when President Trump said he believed the Iran conflict was closer to the end than the beginning. Before the comments, stocks had already moved off their lows and crude off its high. Crude’s move was extreme- trading between $85-$120 before settling around $100. Trump held a press conference after the close in which he reiterated that he expects the war to end “soon, very soon” but not this week.

Equities are continuing to move around this morning. S&P futures were trading up as much as 0.5% earlier before beginning to slip around 6am ET, currently looking at a -0.2% drop at the Open. Secretary of War Hegseth and Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen Caine held a press briefing around 8am. Hegseth stated that today will be the most intense day of strikes inside Iran. Oracle earnings after the close will be closely watched as a key piece of the AI trade.

Crude is pulling back after yesterday’s wild rise but is off its earlier lows. Brent is down ~5% to~ $96 (LOD $89) while WTI is down a similar amount and has dropped back below $90 (LOD $85). Precious metals are higher. Silver gapped up above its 50d ma to ~$90. Bitcoin and Ether are modestly higher as well.

Major European indexes are trading up 1-2% and back around their highs. Bank stocks are higher across the region and Volkswagen shares are up 2% after earnings. Japanese equities bounced overnight after sharp declines on Monday (Nikkei +3%), following up on the late day US strength.