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December, 5 2025 at 5:00 p.m. EST
This week was kind of a weird one, sandwiched between the very short one last week and next week’s Fed rate decision and Oracle earnings. Once again though, the biggest event did not involve the Fed, earnings or options hedging. Thursday night was the 102nd Annual NYSE Tree Lighting. Regarding the markets, since reclaiming 6800 the day before Thanksgiving, the S&P has drifted a little higher, trading in a range of 6800 to 6900. The all-time high is less than 1% above us. That’s coincided with a strong compression in volatility. Both the S&P 500 and the equal-weight index closed modestly higher this week. Friday's gain made it eight of the last nine trading days for the S&P, but it was the small caps that led the way. After starting the week under pressure, they moved higher until cooling off on Friday. Narrative-driven and thematic baskets mainly saw strong gains. Performance was mixed across sectors with 6/11 finishing higher for the week. Energy led as it traded higher along with crude and gas. Tech was at the top as well, led by semis and not necessarily the typical names we hear. Financials gained as yield spreads widened and labor data was generally positive. Lagging sectors saw larger moves in magnitude. Utilities fell 4% with broad weakness as yields rose and action was less defensive. Healthcare continued to pullback from its runup since late September. Consumer Staples, Real Estate and Materials also saw broad weakness. M&A news flow was relatively light by deal number but not deal size. Netflix agreed to buy Warner Bros. Discovery for $72B in cash and stock, but regulatory scrutiny and other bidders remain out there. The main story in commodities was silver, which spiked 16% from Wednesday to Monday and tested $60 on Friday. Bitcoin pulled back below $90k on Friday after failing to get above its 20d ma ~$92.5k. Next week's main event will be the Fed’s interest rate decision and forward guidance on Wednesday. Earnings will also be a focal point, with more retail and consumer-focused names reporting as well as Oracle in Tech. There will also be several big Investor Days. Enjoy your weekend.
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