The S&P 500 ended the first day of the new month down 0.4% despite being up ~1% earlier in the day. Once again the weakness was focused on Tech as the equal-weight rose 0.8% and Russell 2000 was up 0.2%. 7/11 sectors were higher and only Energy and Tech saw significant sector declines. Oil was slammed on the latest news of Middle East diplomacy, down 8%, and rates fell modestly across the curve. Tech capital raising continued to feed a bearish narrative, with Oracle announcing a $20B raise split between equity and debt. Anthropic updated their S-1 with Q3 numbers and spending commitments for the next 12 months and by YE 2030 ($70B and $450B respectively).

S&P futures moved modestly lower overnight with weakness in Apple and Palantir after they reported earnings last night though both stocks are well off their overnight lows. Overnight oil prices were also reversing some of yesterday’s pullback after the US launched a limited strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island. The administration said there were no plans to escalate, and JD Vance expressed optimism for a negotiated settlement. As Americans headed to the polls there were some positive headlines related to negotiations which sent oil prices lower ahead of the open. However, a couple hours later Iranian officials threw some cold water on this again. There are lingering questions as to how the outcome of today’s elections could impact the geopolitical landscape. Aside from the legislative races there are numerous local ballot measures and implications for data center construction across the country that could impact this whole AI story. There is a rebound in that trade todaywith semis, memory, neoclouds and the infrastructure stocks all rallying. Oracle (+5%) completed its $20B capital raise half of which was equity which priced at ~11% discount to Friday’s close before the announcement. Major US indices opened around unchanged and have moved modestly higher throughout the morning.