Data Insights

Through the storm? Options usage trends to end 2022 and start 2023

The second half of 2022 saw continued pressure on equities indices and periods of elevated volatility. Investors frequently used the options market to gain or hedge exposure to these fluctuations, resulting in the busiest year ever for options trading volume1. To start 2023, the equity market has rallied and options volume continues to increase, setting an all-time single-day record of 64.8mm multi-list contracts traded.

Much of the options market usage we observed has reflected concurrent equity index activity, but examining the market by flow type reveals some variations in bullishness and bearishness from different types of investors.

General put-call volume ratio vs. equity market trend

The below chart looks at weekly data in the latter half of 2022 and January 2023. The put-call ratio generally corresponded to average daily price fluctuations in SPY, an ETF tracking the S&P500 index. Drops in SPY corresponded to the rises in put-call ratios and vice versa. As expected, this trend suggests much options activity aligned with the overall equity market moves.

Did retail and institutional investors differ views via the options market?

The put-call volume ratio is considered an indicator of market sentiment: a higher put-call ratio generally demonstrates more bearish sentiment for the equity market, which is what we observed in our data from 2022. As shown in the chart below, the monthly median put-call ratio over the latter half of last year ranged from about 0.8 to 1.03, averaging 0.94. The nearly 1.0 ratio corresponds to a mixed view on the market: almost the same number of puts traded as calls in 2022. This differs from 2021, when the monthly median put-call ratio ranged from 0.5 to 0.7 indicating a much more bullish sentiment despite an already-rising equity market.

According to the chart below, different types of order flow exhibited different ratios. Electronic trading, which is highly correlated with retail activity, saw a slightly lower put-call ratio than floor trading, with around 1.4% less on average, showing more bullish view than institutionally driven floor activity. A higher premium gap between calls and puts the floor traded with the same underlying, expiration and moneyness reflects a willingness to pay more for protection. In early 2023, electronic trading showed more bullish sentiment and floor trading had much lower premium gaps between calls and puts.

Sentiment trends around macro events

The below charts show the put-call volume distribution of options with less than one month left to expire around FOMC and CPI events in the latter half of 2022 and early 2023.

Among all short-dated options, floor trading flows showed significantly higher put-call ratios on Tuesday, a day ahead of FOMC meeting, for July, September and November in the below chart. Most puts were traded a day before FOMC meetings when the stock market showed higher volatility, representing a bearish sentiment towards the Fed’s hawkish decision on interest rate hikes. Looking at 2023, floor trading still traded more puts than calls relative to electronic trading, particularly for the day after FOMC meeting in February this year.

Put-call ratios did not show as consistent a trend around CPI events. Since CPI announcements could occur any day of the week but FOMC meetings are scheduled to be on Wednesday only, it is harder to study the CPI announcement impact independently from the standard Friday option expiry impact. Higher put-call ratios were observed before, on or after CPI announcement days in different months, but October and December last year saw the highest put-call ratios.

Summary