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Home/Data Insights/Options Market Bracing for Turbulence
Data Insights

Options Market Bracing for Turbulence

By: Choey Li | Quantitative Research Lead, NYSE

Oct. 14, 2021

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U.S. options market volumes remained strong in Q3 2021 with an average of 35.5M contracts traded per day in the midst of several negative market catalysts: inflation fears, Fed taper plans and a rising 10-year Treasury yield, the Delta variant, Evergrande debt woes, US Federal debt limit brinksmanship, and uncertainty around an infrastructure bill. As market participants traded heavily to hedge and position for these (potential) developments, NYSE Arca Options ranked #1 in U.S. options multi-list market share at 12.3%, with a record quarterly average daily volume for NYSE Group of 4.37M average daily contracts traded. Competitive quoting and electronic activity drove market share growth, resulting in NYSE Arca Options maintaining its #1 ranking in time quoting at the NBBO.

Return of Volatility and Rising Options Skew

Volatility at the end of Q3 was nearly 50% higher than at the beginning, and options skew also steadily rose throughout the quarter. Skew is the difference in the implied volatility for out-of-the-money (OTM), in-the-money (ITM), and at-the-money (ATM) options. Skew generally exists in most stocks with OTM puts typically trading at a higher implied volatility than OTM calls.

As a measure of skew, we looked at the average trade price of 5% out-of-the-money (OTM) puts with maturity between 25 and 35 days as compared to the average trade price of 5% OTM calls. Without skew, we would see the near-term 5% OTM call price equal the near-term 5% OTM put price. In SPY, the premium at which the puts traded over the calls (“risk reversal” or “collar”) increased by about 74% from its low for the year in April to its high year-to-date in September. Skew has been at its highest since February of this year implying an increased risk of a market drawdown.

SPY 5% OTM Put vs Call Differential

Conclusion

The market has been turbulent to start Q4, but options market activity continues to grow, suggesting that investors increasingly look to the listed options market to hedge risks related to such volatility and to express macroeconomic and stock-specific expectations. Liquidity and displayed interest are key to executing in this higher volatility environment. During this volatile time, NYSE Arca Options has continued to increase its market share and be a leader in time quoting at the NBBO. We look forward to building upon NYSE Arca Options’ continued momentum.

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