Yesterday markets continued to feel the volatility aftershocks with the S&P trading in about a 2% intraday range. After opening higher, the S&P faded throughout the morning before bouncing again post the European close to end up 0.4%, closing just under its 20d ma. Today the S&P opened modestly higher as the wave of earnings begins to surge. While financials continue to dominate earnings several major tech names provided updates. Overnight, Taiwan Semi issued strong revenue and margin guidance and bullish commentary for the AI outlook while noting non-AI has likely bottomed. Salesforce and Oracle were up on the heels of their Analyst Days. The S&P tacked on to its opening gains and was up 0.8% at the day’s high, but has since given it all up and is currently down ~1%. The weakness started around 11:30am, right around the time President Trump posted that he was on the phone with Putin and Bitcoin began to slide below $110k. Additional pressure came from investors turning over more rocks looking for credit “cockroaches” following the Tricolor and First Brands collapses. A few more have scurried out from the shadows in the form of 8K disclosures of loan write downs, though nothing cataclysmic. That’s led to the regionals coming under strong selling pressure today. Tech was trying to stay above water with semis doing OK but has turned negative. The 2y is down 8bp, 10y 6bp as Treasuries are well-bid with the equity weakness and credit disclosures, as well as a host of Fed speakers making the rounds. After reaching 99, the US Dollar Index continues to move lower as it heads back towards its 50/100d ma ~98. The Philly Fed manufacturing survey showed a steep drop in overall sentiment from last month for current conditions but New Orders improved as did expectations.

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