Yesterday saw sharp gains as mega cap tech and AI ripped. The S&P rose 1.5%, trading back within 1% of a new all-time high, while the equal-weight and Russell 2000 added ~0.5%. META led the rally (+11%) as its Muse AI agent saw a surge of demand, which filtered down the tech stack and especially chip names (ICE Semis +5%). On top of that oil fell for the 4th straight day, taking Brent crude below $100. The treasury curve bull-flattened as 10/30y fell ~5bp. Outside of equities, crypto “mooned” as the kids would say with Bitcoin taking out $85K as a short squeeze sent a wave of liquidations through the system.

Today is the last day of Summer as the arrival of the equinox in the Northern Hemisphere around 8:00 PT EST officially brings in Autumn. Speaking of arrivals, President Trump is in NYC and gave a wide-ranging speech at the UN this morning. He will be meeting with the leaders of UK, Japan and Ukraine, as well as Gulf Cooperation Council. Throughout the day he has suggested there has been some communication with Iran and continues to float the idea of a deal, which is quickly followed by threats of annihilation.

Overnight oil was trading higher and equity futures were under some pressure but that reversed after reports that Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days and restart negotiations, contingent on the US easing military pressure. This along with reports that the Saudis restarted the East-West pipeline and will resume Red Sea exports from Yanbu sent oil prices lower and supported equities. Equities opened modestly higher but faded as oil prices and yields have moved off their lows. Major indices are trading on either side of unchanged, which considering yesterday’s rally is healthy action though breadth is disappointing.