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Review of 2022: Challenges and Opportunities


Published
January 12, 2023

At the beginning of this year, the New York Stock Exchange made five bold predictions for the active ETF market in 2022:

  1. Assets under management (AUM): Grow from $293.1 billion at the start of the year to exceed $425 billion by year end 2022
  2. Full-year cash flow: Another big year with over $80 billion in new cash flow
  3. Mutual fund to ETF conversions: 10+ issuers will complete mutual fund to ETF conversions totaling over $20 billion
  4. Active semi-transparent: 20+ ETFs will launch, and assets will exceed $10 billion
  5. Growth milestone: At least one issuer will eclipse $60 billon in AUM

So how did we do in 2022?

  • Assets have grown to over $340 billion. Solid improvement, yet short of our prediction. We all could have used a stronger second-half market rally.
  • Full-year cash flow exceeded $80 billion, ending the year at $85.5 billion. Importantly, flows continued to surpass the broader ETF market share representing ~14% of total industry cash flows.
  • The industry welcomed 17 active ETFs from 13 separate issuers via conversion from mutual funds, with combined assets on conversion of $19.9 billion. A flurry of second-half conversions carried this prediction over the line.
  • Nine new active semi-transparent ETFs came to market in 2022 and assets now stand at $4.8 billion. The broader market had nearly $1 billion in new cash flow in 2022, however the current investable asset class limitation to U.S. equity appears to be a real headwind for product development.
  • Dimensional ended the year with $72.4 billion in assets. Easily eclipsing our prediction of a single issuer over $60 billion. As a bonus, JPMorgan was just short, ending the year with $56.9 billion in AUM.

Three for five is respectable and an improvement over our two for five performance in 2021. All told, despite plenty of challenges, 2022 was another strong year for the active ETF market.

Beyond our bold predictions, there are three additional stats from the year that stood out to us:

  • Firms with postive cash flow: 149 firms, or nearly 80% of firms; up from 75% at the midway point of the year
  • ETFs with postive cash flow: 649 active ETFs, or nearly 70% of all ETFs; up from 655 at the mid way point of the year
  • ETFs with cash flow over $100 million: 158 active ETFs in 2022 vs. 135 active ETFs in 2021

Quarterly Active ETF Cash Flows

Source: Factset as of 12/31/2022

Total Annual Flows

Source: Factset as of 12/31/2022

The actively managed ETF industry grew across nearly all asset classes throughout 2022. Equity flows continued to be the story of the industry, leading the way with $70.9 billion. Investors favored domestic equity exposure (+$47.6 billion) to global (+$23.3 billion) and value to growth. Notably, ETFs that focused on yield through a dividend tilt and/or an options overlay led the industry. Fixed income flows, $8.4 billion, rallied from their mid-year lows despite outflows from global fixed income. The flows that did come in favored ultra and short-term ETFs as well as municipals. Alternatives, $3.1 billion, gained their largest cash flow on record. Investors poured three times the amount of money into these ETFs than in the prior five years combined. Flows favored a combination of managed futures and real return strategies that focus on minimizing the impact of rising rates and inflation. Commodities reversed course in the second half with inflows of $5.6 billion at the start of the period, ceding to outflows in the second half and $2.8 billion in net 2022 flows.

Active ETF Flows by Asset Class

Source: Factset as of 12/31/2022

Global EquityDomestic EquityDomestic Fixed IncomeGlobal Fixed IncomeCommoditiesAsset AllocationAlternativesCurrency
AUM LeaderDimensionalDimensionalJPMorganFirst TrustInvescoETCFirst TrustProShares
AUM Leader $B$20.1$48.2$29.4$16.0$6.1$1.5$1.1$0.5
Q1 CF LeaderDimensionalJPMorganJPMorganDimensionalInvescoMohriMGPProShares
Q1 CF Leader $B$11.5$13.7$5.4$2.5$1.8$0.2$1.0$0.2

Source: Factset as of 12/31/2022

At the issuer level, Dimensional and JPMorgan positioned themselves as the 2022 cash flow leaders, taking in $26.6 billion and $21.9 billion, respectively. The two firms demonstrated leadership in different ways, as Dimensional had 13 of their 30 ETFs surpassing $1 billion in flows while JPMorgan had the two biggest cash flow winners of the year: JEPI (+$13.0 billion) and JPST (+$5.6 billion). American Century/Avantis (+$10.0 billion), First Trust (+$7.3 billion), Capital Group (+$5.9 billion), and Innovator (+$5.6 billion) rounded out the list of issuers with greater than $5 billion in cash flows for their actively managed lineups. First Trust and Innovator’s flows were heavily driven by their defined outcome strategies. American Century/Avantis and Capital Group both saw flows across their lineups into their broader market, lower cost actively managed ETFs.

2022 Cash Flow Leaders by Asset Class

2022 Cash Flow Leaders by Asset Class

Flows by Top 5

Source: Factset as of 12/31/2022

Despite volatile markets in 2022, over 77% of issuers experienced positive cash flows for the year and over a third had cash flows in excess of $50 million. In addition to the six issuers mentioned above, PGIM (+$2.0 billion), Amplify (+$1.6 billion), Janus Henderson (+$1.5 billion), Invesco (+$1.2 billion), and Fidelity (+$1.1 billion) all crossed $1 billion in net cash flows. These five issuers found varied paths to their success, from ultra-short fixed income (PGIM), dividend income (Amplify), AAA-rated CLOs (Janus Henderson), and commodities (Invesco) to broader fixed income (Fidelity). Led by the aforementioned Capital Group, an impressive nine new entrants to the ETF market crossed over $100 million in cash flow for the year. Issuers who entered the active ETF market in 2021 saw similar success in their first full year, with almost 80% of these issuers experiencing positive cash flows for 2022.

TickerTop 10 ETFs by Cash Flow ($B)2022 ($M)

JEPI

JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF

$12,983

JPST

JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF

$5,558

DFAC

Dimensional U.S. Core Equity 2 ETF

$3,639

FTSM

First Trust Enhanced Short Maturity ETF

$3,574

AVUV

Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF

$2,665

DFIC

Dimensional International Core Equity 2 ETF

$2,085

DFCF

Dimensional Core Fixed Income ETF

$2,019

PULS

PGIM Ultra Short Bond ETF

$1,918

DFAI

Dimensional International Core Equity Market ETF

$1,849

PDBC

Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF

$1,753

Source: Factset as of 12/31/2022

At the product level, over 67% of active ETFs saw positive flows for the year and 233 experienced flows over $50 million (often viewed as a break-even measure for an ETF). As mentioned in our mid-year note, the industry’s asset weighted expense ratio dropped from 0.52% to 0.44% through the year, driven primarily by the impressive cash flow of lower fee ETFs such as JPST (0.18%) and JEPI (0.35%). Nearly 80% of all cash flows went into ETFs with expense ratios below the 44 bps industry average. In spite of this, roughly 72% of newly launched ETFs exceeded this industry average in 2022, though these funds only saw 25% of all fund flows to newly launched ETFs.

Expense Ratio12/31/22 AUM2022 CF% AUM% CF# ETFs
0-25$129,119,498,632$36,731,321,20538%43%99
26-50$98,042,605,230$32,437,790,02029%38%216
51-75$57,532,017,673$2,480,783,74517%3%264
76+$57,136,286,208$14,000,584,59917%16%382
Expense Ratio12/31/22 AUM2021 CF% AUM% CF# ETFs
0-25$87,189,444,847$19,242,732,04930%16%71
26-50$72,611,193,035$20,904,115,92025%23%157
51-75$79,966,872,501$31,816,809,58024%34%189
76+$52,245,286,420$20,309,766,17618%22%298

Source: Factset as of 12/31/2022

Bold Predictions for 2023

As the ETF industry enters its 30th year and the active market enters its 16th year, we have five more bold predictions for what 2023 will bring.

  1. Assets under management (AUM): Grow from $340 billion to exceed $450 billion by year end 2023
  2. Full-year cash flow: Make it three years in a row with over $80 billion
  3. Mutual fund to ETF conversions: 15+ issuers will complete mutual fund to ETF conversions totaling over $20 billion
  4. Active semi-transparent: 10+ ETFs will launch, and assets will exceed $7.5 billion
  5. Growth milestone: At least two issuers will eclipse $75 billion in AUM

2022 Launch Monitor

Domestic Equity

99 ETFs Launched

$18.5 B Assets Raised

Domestic Fixed Income

28 ETFs Launched

$2.6 B Assets Raised

Alternatives

9 ETFs Launched

$451 M Assets Raised

Int'l/Global Equity

68 ETFs Launched

$15.8 B Assets Raised

Int'l/Global Fixed Income

20 ETFs Launched

$773 M Assets Raised

Asset Allocation

13 ETFs Launched

$278 M Assets Raised

Active ETF Stat Pack

Firms
# of Issuers193
# of New Issuers 202247
ProductsAssets
# of ETFs961AUM ($B)$341.83
# of New Launches 20222463 Yr AUM CAGR52%
Avg. ER0.44%5 Yr AUM CAGR52%
Cash FlowTrading
YTD Cash Flow ($B)$85.45YTD ADV (Shares)133,915,576
3 Yr Cash Flow$235.65YTD ADV ($)$5.23 B
5 Yr Cash Flow$2292.34YTD Avg. Spread (bps)*32.85

Source: Factset & NYSE Internal Database and Consolidated Tape Statistics as of 12/31/2022

*Simple average

Active, Semi-Transparent ETFs

TickerInceptionNameAUMYTD Flows30 Day Median Spread (bps)ADV (shares)StructureLMMExpense Ratio
EQOP9/17/20Natixis U.S. Equity Opportunities ETF$8,125,474$613,14313.04828NYSE AMSCitadel0.85%
VNSE9/17/20Natixis Vaughan Nelson Select ETF$11,915,702$8,247,76112.021,974NYSE AMSCitadel0.80%
VNMC9/17/20Natixis Vaughan Nelson Mid Cap ETF$7,123,780$(576,696)14.195612NYSE AMSCitadel0.85%
ESGA7/15/20American Century Sustainable Equity ETF$108,711,450$(25,415,394)12.3710,989NYSE AMSCitadel0.39%
MID7/15/20American Century Mid Cap Growth Impact ETF$28,098,630$9,964,87010.8754,722NYSE AMSCitadel0.45%
ESGY7/1/21American Century Sustainable Growth ETF$6,108,557$1,144,3287.55334NYSE AMSCitadel0.39%
NDVG8/5/21Nuveen Dividend Growth ETF$7,680,529$1,704,2478.513,634NYSE AMSCitadel0.64%
NSCS8/5/21Nuveen Small Cap Select ETF$5,462,678$24,16611.27394NYSE AMSCitadel0.85%
NWLG8/5/21Nuveen Winslow Large-Cap Growth ESG ETF$4,372,272$33,4098.964,910NYSE AMSCitadel0.64%
NUGO9/28/21Nuveen Growth Opportunities ETF$2,074,650,760$(153,037,682)9.065290,617NYSE AMSCitadel0.55%
SAEF11/16/21Schwab Ariel ESG ETF$12,880,650$7,175,25042.713,516NYSE AMSFlow Traders0.59%
IWLG6/23/22IQ Winslow Large Cap Growth ETF$13,029,480$8,176,09023.365,500NYSE AMSCitadel0.60%
IWFG6/23/22IQ Winslow Focused Large Cap Growth ETF$5,521,110$795,51022.6452,509NYSE AMSCitadel0.65%
TSME10/5/22Thrivent Small-Mid Cap ESG ETF$73,483,105$70,415,4609.95552,770NYSE AMSRBC0.65%
FDG4/2/20American Century Focused Dynamic Growth ETF$123,280,828$(13,253,821)11.96522,080ActiveSharesCitadel0.45%
FLV4/2/20American Century Focused Large Cap Value ETF$222,088,160$(7,596,253)10.319,318ActiveSharesCitadel0.42%
FBCG6/4/20Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF$385,942,736$79,932,85821.285135,185Fidelity ProxyGTS0.59%
FBCV6/4/20Fidelity Blue Chip Value ETF$137,909,486$39,522,44327.55527,618Fidelity ProxyGTS0.59%
FMIL6/4/20Fidelity New Millennium ETF$83,044,144$20,200,75934.3814,538Fidelity ProxyGTS0.59%
FGRO2/4/21Fidelity Growth Opportunities ETF$54,863,533$22,960,46114.505152,222Fidelity ProxyCitadel0.59%
FMAG2/4/21Fidelity Magellan ETF$41,305,383$241,85312.41514,841Fidelity ProxyRBC0.59%
FPRO2/4/21Fidelity Real Estate Investment ETF$16,243,389$(804,779)11.045,487Fidelity ProxyCitadel0.59%
FSMO2/4/21Fidelity Small/Mid-Cap Opportunities ETF$27,948,438$1,021,1229.1156,984Fidelity ProxyRBC0.59%
FSST6/17/21Fidelity Sustainability U.S. Equity ETF$7,269,893$2,335,52312.61,409Fidelity ProxyRBC0.59%
FDWM6/17/21Fidelity Women's Leadership ETF$3,380,055$1,686,89513.97898Fidelity ProxyRBC0.59%
TCHP8/5/20T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth ETF$260,337,796$113,332,74511.375129,435T Rowe ProxyVirtu0.57%
TDVG8/5/20T. Rowe Price Dividend Growth ETF$273,369,165$160,605,8219.99542,969T Rowe ProxyRBC0.50%
TEQI8/5/20T. Rowe Price Equity Income ETF$99,308,477$47,122,2998.819,193T Rowe ProxyVirtu0.54%
TGRW8/5/20T. Rowe Price Growth Stock ETF$34,733,694$5,925,82411.613,409T Rowe ProxyRBC0.52%
TSPA6/8/21T. Rowe Price U.S. Equity Research ETF$23,125,985$4,832,21810.9452,716T Rowe ProxyRBC0.52%
IVDG12/22/20Invesco Focused Discovery Growth ETF$693,080$(207,050)10.77317Invesco ModelCitadel0.59%
IVSG12/22/20Invesco Select Growth ETF$839,889$(95,330)10.825332Invesco ModelCitadel0.48%
IVLC12/22/20Invesco US Large Cap Core ESG ETF$5,632,022$(24,960)16.3751,352Fidelity ProxyCitadel0.48%
IVRA12/22/20Invesco Real Assets ESG ETF$3,083,163$1,085,24033.721,444Fidelity ProxyCitadel0.59%
LOPP2/1/21
Gabelli Love Our Planet & People ETF
$12,602,100$3,319,19077.85592ActiveSharesGTS0.90%
GGRW2/16/21Gabelli Growth Innovators ETF$2,084,600$(252,075)26.495432ActiveSharesGTS0.90%
GAST1/5/22Gabelli Asset ETF$4,391,310$244,38047.455100ActiveSharesGTS0.90%
GABF5/11/22Gabelli Financial Services Opportunities ETF$5,223,960$261,40075.295239ActiveSharesGTS0.00%
FRTY3/1/21Alger Mid Cap 40 ETF$28,616,000$6,703,37542.2519,565ActiveSharesVirtu0.60%
ATFV5/4/21Alger 35 ETF$8,992,500$268,25041.861,438ActiveSharesVirtu0.55%
REIT2/26/21ALPS Active REIT ETF$17,131,448$(4,502,900)26.9654,835Blue TractorGTS0.68%
STNC3/16/21Hennessy Stance ESG Large Cap ETF$42,150,132$-28.9652,711Blue TractorGTS0.85%
PFUT5/26/21Putnam Sustainable Future ETF$7,160,040$1,347,57133.471,772Fidelity ProxyVirtu0.64%
PLDR5/26/21Putnam Sustainable Leaders ETF$5,906,321$(6,316)10.875345Fidelity ProxyRBC0.59%
PGRO5/26/21Putnam Focused Large Cap Growth ETF$9,527,127$2,783,47810.341,951Fidelity ProxyRBC0.55%
PVAL5/26/21Putnam Focused Large Cap Value ETF$136,565,286$114,138,29630.36525,588Fidelity ProxyVirtu0.55%
HFGO11/9/21Hartford Large Cap Growth ETF$72,298,888$79,387,26929.42102,966Fidelity ProxyCitadel0.59%
SEMI3/30/22Columbia Seligman Semiconductor and Technology ETF$13,993,977$10,711,95036.5858,261Fidelity ProxyVirtu0.75%
CAPE4/5/22DoubleLine Shiller CAPE U.S. Equities ETF$207,174,100$216,526,80014.0698,909ActiveSharesCitadel0.65%
FMCX4/25/22FMC Excelsior Focus Equity ETF$69,946,350$2,198,10048.0751,121ActiveSharesGTS0.70%
BYRE5/19/22Principal Real Estate Active Opportunities ETF$4,962,849$5,497,34825.831,470Fidelity ProxyVirtu0.65%
Total/Average$4,820,290,481$846,714,44621.891,257,3530.61%

Source: Factset & NYSE Internal Database and Consolidated Tape Statistics as of 12/31/2022

*Simple average

December ETF Launches

TickerNameIssuerLaunch DateAsset ClassAUM
DECTAllianzIM U.S. Large Cap Buffer10 Dec ETFAllianz12/1/22Equity$18,008,850
DECWAllianzIM U.S. Large Cap Buffer20 Dec ETFAllianz12/1/22Equity$83,654,940
INTLMain International ETFMain Management12/2/22Equity$55,970,200
SECDSenior Secured Credit Opportunities ETFToroso Investments12/6/22Fixed Income$496,798
QVOYQ3 All-Season Active Rotation ETFQ3 Asset Management Corp.12/7/22Asset Allocation$49,760,000
DFLVDimensional US Large Cap Value ETFDimensional Holdings12/7/22Equity$179,977,980
DFGRDimensional Global Real Estate ETFDimensional Holdings12/7/22Equity$204,524,065
HIYSInvesco High Yield Select ETFInvesco12/9/22Fixed Income$9,840,825
ICLOInvesco AAA CLO Floating Rate Note ETFInvesco12/9/22Fixed Income$30,183,625
IMSIInvesco Municipal Strategic Income ETFInvesco12/9/22Fixed Income$29,847,650
ISDBInvesco Short Duration Bond ETFInvesco12/9/22Fixed Income$9,998,425
RNWZTrueShares Eagle Global Renewable Energy Income ETFTrueMark Group12/9/22Equity$2,473,390
BABXGraniteShares 1.75x Long BABA Daily ETFGraniteShares12/13/22Equity$737,725
FBLGraniteShares 1.5x Long Meta Daily ETFGraniteShares12/13/22Equity$797,727
NVDLGraniteShares 1.5x Long NVDA Daily ETFGraniteShares12/13/22Equity$563,419
DIPBTD Capital FundExchange Traded Concepts12/13/22Equity$1,699,600
VEMYVirtus Stone Harbor Emerging Markets High Yield Bond ETFVirtus Investment Partners12/13/22Fixed Income$3,735,850
PBLPGIM Portfolio Ballast ETFPGIM12/14/22Asset Allocation$24,866,580
PJFGPGIM Jennison Focused Growth ETFPGIM12/14/22Equity$9,870,000
PJFVPGIM Jennison Focused Value ETFPGIM12/14/22Equity$10,292,310
INFRClearBridge Sustainable Infrastructure ETFFranklin Templeton12/16/22Equity$2,432,000
JHIDJohn Hancock International High Dividend ETFJohn Hancock12/21/22Equity$5,007,460
PITVanEck Commodity Strategy ETFVanEck12/22/22Commodities$20,132,000
KCALSubversive Food Security ETFSubversive12/22/22Equity$615,285
DKRBSubversive Decarbonization ETFSubversive12/22/22Equity$623,943
ARPPMV Adaptive Risk Parity ETFPMV Capital Advisers LLC12/22/22Alternatives$28,003,085
SANESubversive Mental Health ETFSubversive12/23/22Equity$621,848
BOXXAlpha Architect 1-3 Month Box ETFAlpha Architect12/28/22Fixed Income$17,003,383
CHRG
Element EV, Solar & Battery Materials (Lithium, Nickel, Copper, Cobalt) Futures Strategy ETF
Element ETFs LLC12/29/22Commodities$5,000,000
FCUSPinnacle Focused Opportunities ETFToroso Investments12/30/22Equity$500,000
Total - 30 New ETFs$807,238,960

Source: Factset & NYSE Internal Database and Consolidated Tape Statistics as of 12/31/2022

*Simple average

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