Happy Week One of the NFL season to everyone, except to those fan bases excited by their team’s performance. It’s a pretty quiet day, like the pocket Daniel Jones had to throw from against the Dolphins yesterday. Performance is mixed, kinda like the Broncos in their matchup versus the Titans. I promise the sports references will end at some point. The S&P 500 is trying to stay positive but trading in a tight range of about three touchdowns (not yet!). There’s a clear demarcation between growth and value today and between large and small to a lesser degree. Mega and large-cap Growth is trading higher while the Value counterpart is trading down, with about a 1% performance gap. Tech is the leading sector today, up about 1% but not as impressive as the Bills-Ravens game last night. Software is relatively strong across-the-board while semis are mixed as Broadcom continues to see positive momentum from last week’s earnings and AI chip updates. In some more AI news, ASML will become the largest shareholder in Mistral, investing $1.5B in the AI startup. Real Estate and Utilities are leading to the downside with the market tilting to large cap tech and some other higher beta/growthy areas. The annual benchmark revision to non-farm payrolls data will be out tomorrow and is widely expected to include a negative revision of up to 950K jobs according to Goldman Sachs, and also elicit responses from the administration about data integrity and monetary policy. Friday saw treasuries higher, pushing yields lower by 5-10p across the curve following the weak jobs data. A 25bp Fed rate cut is fully priced in for September, and the market increased the odds of a total of three cuts for the rest of the year. However we still have another round of inflation data to get through this week (PPI Wed, CPI Thrs). Most of the treasury curve is flat-to-down ~2bp but the 30yr is 5bp lower and has fallen ~25bp since September 2.

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