Yesterday was a wildly volatile session. Following another round of tech headlines (OpenAI filing, Anthropic Mythos release) and deal announcements (AVGO/APO/BX), the sector was once again leading to the upside after the open after. However, that was like Stephon Castle head fake and the sector came under significant pressure, pushing the S&P 500 below Friday’s lows. Tech and other thematic/speculative favorites lead to the downside, raising some question as to how much of this was traders making room for Friday’s SpaceX IPO. Not helping sentiment was an announcement by data center developer Crusoe that it was pausing its project in Wyoming at the request of the undisclosed customer. To put the weakness in perspective, the NYSE Semi index traded in >10% intraday range down 8.5% at the lows before ending down 1.6%. President Trump’s post on social media in the middle of the day, suggesting a retaliation for the downed helicopter sent markets to fresh lows. However, shortly thereafter a NYT story suggesting discussions about a 15yr enrichment suspension helped markets bounce. A couple of notes - despite the headlines oil prices ended down ~3% holding just above the mid-May lows and never sniffed turning positive. It is also worth noting that even at the lows breadth within the market was positive. The S&P 500 ended down 0.3% but the equal-weight and small/midcap indices ended up ~1% excluding the R2K which was dragged down by momentum/thematic favorites like space, nuclear, quantum and rare earths.

Futures were drifting lower overnight and accelerated to the downside this morning as President Trump’s Iran rhetoric turned more hostile again. Ahead of CPI tech headlines continued to dominate the press. There are some more potential circular financing deals and capital raises - OpenAI is reportedly negotiating a 20yr lease of a 10GW datacenter in Ohio with Nvidia potentially involved in the financing. Supermicro is the most recent tech company to raise capital ($7B) while neo-data center co.’s HUT/APLD both closed previously announced financings. The supply has become a hot topic, a FT story notes, “Goldman Sachs estimates net supply of equity in the US — measured by new shares hitting the market less equity removed by buybacks or companies going private — will be almost flat in 2026, having been in negative territory since 2003.”